Climate Fragility and Security
Snapshot: Population ~223 million | GDP per capita ~US$2,184 | Fragility context: Climate-security hotspot | Region: West Africa
Integrated Context
Nigeria faces a wide range of climate pressures across its different ecological zones. In the north, desertification and water scarcity are affecting farming and pastoral livelihoods. In contrast, the south is increasingly exposed to flooding, coastal erosion, and rising sea levels. In the northeast, these environmental pressures are further complicated by ongoing insecurity and displacement linked to the Lake Chad Basin crisis.
Urban areas are also under growing strain. Rapid population growth in cities such as Lagos and Abuja is increasing exposure to flooding, poor drainage, and heat stress. Across the country, environmental degradation and limited access to land and water are contributing to tensions between farmers and pastoralist communities.
These challenges are interconnected. Climate risks are not only environmental they are also social and economic, influencing migration patterns, local conflicts, and overall stability. Addressing climate fragility in Nigeria therefore requires a balanced approach that combines national-level planning with targeted, region-specific interventions.
Key Climate and Environmental Challenges
• Desertification and land degradation in northern regions
• Flooding and coastal erosion in southern areas
• Resource-based tensions between farmers and pastoralists
• Urban pressures linked to rapid growth and weak infrastructure
GCCED Engagement Priorities
• Strengthening climate–security analysis and integrated planning
• Supporting basin-level water resource management (including Lake Chad)
• Promoting climate-resilient agriculture and livelihood systems
• Advancing urban climate resilience and risk reduction strategies
Strategic Note
Nigeria’s size and diversity mean that there is no single solution to climate resilience. Effective responses need to reflect regional realities, while also strengthening governance systems that can manage environmental stress and reduce the risk of resource-based conflict.
SDG Alignment: 6 • 11 • 13 • 15 • 16
Key Challenges:
- Shrinking Lake Chad basin
- Floods and heatwaves
- Resource-based conflicts
GCCED Priorities:
- Climate–security assessment
- Basin ecosystem management
- Livelihood diversification
